Understanding or predicting the future is not easy, and one can never do this with perfection.  However, in this fast-changing world in which we live, every organization, consultant, and government agency must have a solid method to make reasonable forecasts of what the future will be like.  Shell Oil pioneered the Scenario Planning process that encourages people to brainstorm in organized ways to think up realistic future trends and events called scenarios.  When an organization is looking to the future, by using scenario planning, it can make small bets and see how they work before it makes a very large investment that will take years or even decades to pay off.

This course teaches you some of the key principles and mistakes that are often made in forecasting and scenario planning. All plans must depend on a solid view of what the future will look like, and merely looking at past trends will not provide a view of the future that is either accurate or even likely.  Every budget created for every organization is a forecast based on likely scenarios and we explore how forecasting can improve one’s ability to create accurate, future-looking budgets.

Learning Objectives
  • Explore the art of forecasting.
  • Identify ways to predict and understand the future more accurately.
  • Discover how developing scenarios can give you insights into the future.
  • Recognize how important forecasting is to every organization that wants to be around and be successful in the future.
  • Discover how past trends often mislead people into thinking what the future might be like and to miss key signals that things are changing in new ways.
Last updated/reviewed: August 13, 2023
22 Reviews (94 ratings)

Reviews

2
Member's Profile
Very high level discussion from an opinionated instructor. Opinions are interesting, but I was hoping to learn something. With the benefit of hindsight the instructor points out many examples where change should have been anticipated. Would make for an interesting conversation, but not an hour long class.

5
Anonymous Author
I really liked this course precisely because it was thought-provoking. The instructor doesn't intend to teach how to create a forecast, but rather why. He brings an interesting perspective and cites several instances where unfortunate scenarios were indeed predictable.

5
Anonymous Author
This course was mostly about theory / big picture. It reinforced the need for scenario planning, and why it's important. I would think of this more as an executive level course than one for "practitioners".

5
Anonymous Author
This course was extremely thorough and really explained these concepts in depth. I feel as though I have a much better understanding after taking this course.

4
Anonymous Author
This course gives good insight into what forecasting and scenario planning are and how they can benefit an organization. Many real world examples are given.

5
Member's Profile
This was a really nice of overview of not only what to do and why, but gave very good real life examples what companies that didn't follow these processes.

2
Member's Profile
Too general. Nothing specific or useful. Real life examples are entertaining, but that is the only good thing about this course. Would not recommend.

3
Anonymous Author
The course was adequate. It was very general. I felt it was more objective than a "learning course". I was expecting more hands on work.

5
Member's Profile
Very interesting course. Mr. Rubenstein does a nice job of elucidating the essential nature of the forecasting discipline.

5
Member's Profile
This course was mostly about theory / big picture. It reinforced the need for scenario planning, and why it's important.

5
Anonymous Author
This course was informative and provided a lot of great real world examples to demonstrate topics.

2
Member's Profile
I felt like the course was too general. I was expected more specific and hands-on content.

5
Anonymous Author
Insightful and thoughtful discussion of the benefits of scenario planning and forecasting.

5
Anonymous Author
This course provided thoughtful insight into the budgeting and forecasting process.

4
Anonymous Author
Interesting stuff, however the presentations were rather monotone and unexcitable.

5
Anonymous Author
Good course to learn about forecasting and scenario planning. Would recommend.

5
Member's Profile
Good course. Wish it was longer for people involved in budgeting fields.

4
Anonymous Author
Presenter was very knowledgeable and course content was appropriate.

5
Anonymous Author
This course was very insightful into the importance of forecasts.

5
Anonymous Author
I enjoyed the course. Good information and good presentation.

4
Member's Profile
This course is more of a thought generator than a how to.

5
Member's Profile
clear course with great examples, good use of slides

Prerequisites
Course Complexity: Intermediate

No advanced preparation or prerequisites are required for this course.

Education Provider Information
Company: Illumeo, Inc., 75 East Santa Clara St., Suite 1215, San Jose, CA 95113
Contact: For more information regarding this course, including complaint and cancellation policies, please contact our offices at (408) 400- 3993 or send an e-mail to .
Instructor for this course
Course Syllabus
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
  Introduction to Forecasting and Scenario Planning12:55
Section 1
  The Increasing Need for Forecasting and Scenario Planning14:59
Section 2
  Forecasting11:32
  Assumptions Behind Forecasts, Shelf Life of Forecasts, and Publishing Forecasts5:50
Section 3
  Scenario Planning3:10
Section 4
  Once Scenarios Built8:30
  Conclusion3:52
CONTINUOUS PLAY
  Forecasting and Scenario Planning1:00:48
SUPPORTING MATERIALS
  Slides: Forecasting and Scenario Planning PDF
  Forecasting and Scenario Planning Glossary/IndexPDF
REVIEW AND TEST
  REVIEW QUESTIONSquiz
 FINAL EXAMexam