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Understanding or predicting the future is not easy, and one can never do this with perfection.  However, in this fast-changing world in which we live, every organization, consultant, and government agency must have a solid method to make reasonable forecasts of what the future will be like.  Shell Oil pioneered the Scenario Planning process that encourages people to brainstorm in organized ways to think up realistic future trends and events called scenarios.  When an organization is looking to the future, by using scenario planning, it can make small bets and see how they work before it makes a very large investment that will take years or even decades to pay off.

This course teaches you some of the key principles and mistakes that are often made in forecasting and scenario planning. All plans must depend on a solid view of what the future will look like, and merely looking at past trends will not provide a view of the future that is either accurate or even likely.  Every budget created for every organization is a forecast based on likely scenarios and we explore how forecasting can improve one’s ability to create accurate, future-looking budgets.

Learning Objectives

  • Explore the art of forecasting.
  • Identify ways to predict and understand the future more accurately.
  • Discover how developing scenarios can give you insights into the future.
  • Recognize how important forecasting is to every organization that wants to be around and be successful in the future.
  • Discover how past trends often mislead people into thinking what the future might be like and to miss key signals that things are changing in new ways.
Last updated/reviewed: March 09, 2018

3 Reviews (15 ratings)Reviews

2
Member's Profile
Very high level discussion from an opinionated instructor. Opinions are interesting, but I was hoping to learn something. With the benefit of hindsight the instructor points out many examples where change should have been anticipated. Would make for an interesting conversation, but not an hour long class.
2
Member's Profile
I felt like the course was too general. I was expected more specific and hands-on content.
5
Member's Profile
clear course with great examples, good use of slides

Prerequisites

Course Complexity: Intermediate

No advanced preparation or prerequisites are required for this course.

Education Provider Information

Company:
Illumeo, Inc., 75 East Santa Clara St., Suite 1215, San Jose, CA 95113
Contact:
For more information regarding this course, including complaint and cancellation policies, please contact our offices at (408) 400- 3993 or send an e-mail to .
Course Syllabus
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
  12:55Introduction to Forecasting and Scenario Planning
Section 1
  14:59The Increasing Need for Forecasting and Scenario Planning
Section 2
  11:32Forecasting
  5:50Assumptions Behind Forecasts, Shelf Life of Forecasts, and Publishing Forecasts
Section 3
  3:10Scenario Planning
Section 4
  8:30Once Scenarios Built
  3:52Conclusion
CONTINUOUS PLAY
  1:00:48Forecasting and Scenario Planning
SUPPORTING MATERIALS
  PDFSlides: Forecasting and Scenario Planning
  PDFForecasting and Scenario Planning Glossary/Index
REVIEW AND TEST
  quizREVIEW QUESTIONS
 examFINAL EXAM